"As January goes, so goes the year," claims the stock market's farmer's almanac. If this holds true, the end result for 2024 could turn out to be really good, but the journey there might include severe fluctuations, which could be quite challenging. As if the roller coaster of the past few years weren't enough. The market started weak during the first week of the period but recovered the fall during the second week. Only to drop sharply for a few days, before a choppy but strong finish.

The Farmer's Almanac also talks about the American presidential cycle and how the fourth and final year (which we are in now) tends to be the best, driven by the electoral promises typically offered. Especially by an incumbent president seeking reelection. On the other hand, we remember the turbulence and volatility that occurred around the last American presidential election. The outcome is uncertain, but it will gradually attract more and more attention in the coming months.

As the faithful reader knows, we prefer to focus on the fundamentals, above all the profit development and cash flows of companies. The reporting period for the fourth quarter has just begun and will reach its peak in February. What we have seen so far has been predominantly positive, in line with or better than existing expectations. We have also seen very few profit warnings. For software companies, this is significant, as Q4 is still by far the most important quarter and companies can very quickly see the results of new and existing contracts.

We have also seen increasing activity in the market for corporate acquisitions, both in the private sector and on the stock exchange. Anecdotally, we note in some cases significantly higher valuation multiples for unlisted companies than what we see on the stock exchange, which can be both surprising and encouraging for stock investors. During the period, another company in TIN World Tech received a bid – Ansys, which develops advanced simulation software. In TIN New Technology, finally, a bid came for Kindred from the French state-controlled Francaise des Jeux, or 'French Games' if you will.

American (activist) investors have gradually replaced Swedish institutions in Kindred's ownership structure. At the end of May, the company began a strategic review of its operations, which can be seen as a euphemism for the company putting up a 'for sale' sign on the door. The company delayed its report for the third quarter until the end of November 2023, which could be interpreted as completing the strategic review by that date. That was not the case, however, and investors were left in uncertainty until now. We have not yet taken a position on the offer, but will carefully study the terms and any possible alternatives.

The second weekend of February marks the Chinese New Year. 2024 is the year of the dragon, which means that 'powerful energies are in circulation.' We would rather see the coming year as the year of buyouts, which can also be seen as an expression of powerful energies. This in the form of large capital seeking opportunities, lower valuations on the stock market (compared to history and, in several cases, with similar companies outside the stock market), and a stabilized interest rate market.

We want to thank everyone who came, either physically or digitally, to our annual investor meeting on January 16th. It was especially enjoyable to have the CEO of two portfolio holdings, Evolution and Fractal Group, on stage. The presentation and discussion are still available here for those who want to review the material afterwards.

TIN New Technology
In the latest month, the share value of TIN New Technology increased by 2.7 percent. During the same period, the performance of the broader benchmark index for Nordic small companies, VINXSCN, was up by 0.6 percent. Since the fund's inception on February 4, 2019, the fund has risen by 50.8 percent, while the index has increased by 64.4 percent. The three largest holdings in the fund at the end of the month were Evolution, Novo Nordisk, and Surgical Science. For a list of the top ten holdings, see tinfonder.se/holdings-tnt/.

The holdings that contributed most to the return during the month are Kindred, Novo Nordisk, and BioGaia. Among the holdings that negatively affected performance during the month, we find Unity Software, Sinch, and Nordic Semiconductor. The fund's largest segment is Software, which accounts for 35 percent of managed capital, followed by Health at 34 percent and Digital Brands at 15 percent

TIN World Tech
Last month, the share value increased by 5.2 percent. During the same period, the performance of the broader comparison index MSCI World was up by 4.7 percent. Since the fund's inception on June 12, 2020, the fund has risen by 31.2 percent, while the index has increased by 75.5 percent. The three largest holdings in the fund at the end of the month were Microsoft, Nintendo, and Salesforce. For a list of the top ten holdings, see tinfonder.se/holdings-twt/.

The holdings that contributed most to the return during the month were Nvidia, Novo Nordisk, and Microsoft. Among the holdings that negatively affected performance, we find Enphase Energy, Unity Software, and SolarEdge Technologies. The fund's largest segment is Software, which accounts for 55 percent of managed capital, followed by Health at 22 percent and Digital Brands at 14 percent.