Monthly letter
1 NOV 2023

October 2023 – Wall of worry

The recent period has been marked by geopolitical unrest, not least due to events in Israel and the fact that two Swedes were murdered in Belgium - clearly targeted because they were Swedes. If we set aside our emotions and view the events through strictly financial lenses, we can discern rising geopolitical tensions on several fronts. Both war and general uncertainty lead to higher risk premiums and, all else being equal, lower valuations of risk assets.

Trying to decipher how the market has behaved towards the end of the period, we see widespread pessimism, despondency among many market participants, and signs of panic in some price movements. Perhaps this unhealthy behavior in the market is something we must witness—the so-called wall of worry that stocks and markets always climb. A paradoxically healthy unhealthiness. As we have written and talked about before, especially in last month's newsletter, we cannot say when the market will turn, only something about how.

The reporting period for the third quarter is in full swing, with somewhat of a pause this week due to the autumn break in Swedish schools. Nearly half of the companies in TIN New Technology have reported so far, both in number and in terms of portfolio weight. As before, a majority of the companies have reported solid results, with some notable exceptions. Cint, along with Embracer and Sinch, forms a group with similar characteristics—previously acquisition-driven, currently in the midst of various degrees of complex integrations, net indebted, and each yet to prove their ability to generate strong cash flows.

All three of these companies are also trading at single-digit earnings multiples. Cint's report was weak, but the reaction to the report was extreme. This makes Cint, along with many other companies outside our portfolios, illustrative examples of the grim sentiment we described above. A previous holding that could well be grouped with the others above is Storytel. The company reported unexpectedly strong results and showed good cash flow, which was rewarded with a value increase of over 20 percent on the day of the report. This serves as an example of the latent power in beleaguered companies that start to perform better.

However, as mentioned, the vast majority of companies have reported as expected or better. Notably, we have seen more positive profit warnings than negative ones. Two companies that are represented in both funds, Novo Nordisk and Nemetschek, stand out as strong, or in the case of Novo, particularly strong

For TIN World Tech, the reports are somewhat delayed, largely due to broken fiscal years (many have fiscal year-ends in January, which means that quarterly reports for October come a bit later in November). Microsoft and Edwards Lifesciences stand out on the positive side in terms of growth and results, while the fund's holdings in sustainable energy have broken a long streak of positive reports during Q3. Solaredge issued a profit warning and Enphase delivered a weak report

TIN Ny Teknik
Last month, the share value decreased by -4.5 percent. During the same period, the value development for the broader comparison index for Nordic small companies, VINCSCN, was -4.2 percent. Over the past 12 months, the fund has decreased by 11.1 percent, compared to +0.5 percent for the index. Since the fund's inception on February 4, 2019, the fund has increased by 27.1 percent, while the index has increased by 42.7 percent. The three largest holdings in the fund at the end of the month were Evolution, Novo Nordisk, and Paradox Interactive. For a list of the top ten, see tinfonder.se/holdings-tnt/.

The holdings that contributed most to the return during the month are Nemetschek, Novo Nordisk, and Admicom. Among the holdings that negatively affected performance during the month, we find Surgical Science, Evolution, and Embracer. The fund's largest segment is Software, which accounts for 33 percent of managed capital, followed by Health at 31 percent and Digital Brands at 20 percent.

TIN World Tech
Last month, the share value decreased by 3.7 percent. During the same period, the value development for the broader comparison index MSCI World was -0.6 percent. Over the past 12 months, the fund has increased by 7.65 percent, compared to +11.0 percent for the index. Since the fund's inception on June 12, 2020, the fund has risen by 15.2 percent, while the index has increased by 61.3 percent. The three largest holdings in the fund at the end of the month were Microsoft, Nintendo, and Adobe. For a list of the top ten holdings, see tinfonder.se/holdings-twt/.

The holdings that contributed most to the return during the month were Nemetschek, Microsoft, and Novo Nordisk. Among the holdings that negatively affected performance, we find SolarEdge, Nordic Semiconductor, and Enphase. The fund's largest segment is Software, which accounts for 55 percent of managed capital, followed by Health at 21 percent, and Digital Brands at 13 percent.

Carl Armfelt
Erik Sprinchorn

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Risk information
Historical returns are no guarantee of future returns. The money invested in the fund can both increase and decrease in value and it is not certain that an investor will get back all the invested capital. Please read Fact Sheets (PRIIP) and prospectuses available on our website or contact a distributor.
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